Our ignorance of history makes us libel our own times. People have always been like this. -- Gustave Flaubert

Webmaster's Comment: The article below is a verbatim excerpt from an interesting website "Historical Atlas of Twentieth Century" created by  Matthew White who describes himself as "No one in particular"  and advices to "never trust any information without double checking."

That self presentation alone would be enough for me to respect a person behind the website.  I admit developing some personal fascination with the author after reading the "Fine Print" notes on his website, discouraging attempts to email him: " If I don't answer your email, please don't take it as an insult. Maybe I'm in the hospital or in jail. Maybe I'm doing something nice for an elderly retiree, or feeding the homeless. More likely, I'm hungover. Really, it's no reflection on the quality of your email if I don't answer it."  and "If you claim to be a woman who finds my writing totally fascinating and could we please meet, I don't believe you. Plus that would just be more work." I am worried about Matthew's well-being as it seems that his website was not updated in a long time.

I have found "Historical Atlas of Twentieth Century" doing my own research inspired by participating in the 10th Annual International Conference on Slavery and the Slave Trade in the Indian Ocean and Arab Worlds: Global Connections and Disconnections organized by the Gilder Lehrman Center for the Study of Slavery. 

Matthew White's website is crude in design, one of those where the contents is of much higher quality than it's form.  Matthew White seems to be one of those Web original contents providers, who are being constantly deprived from actually profiting from their own work. He presents a strong individual and opinionated point of view that, I am sure, may bring a lot of controversies. Nevertheless I strongly recommend reading his article on "Death Toll of Slavery in History". I have read Matthew's Copyright Info and I believe that I am OK to present his work here.   

Selected Death Tolls for Wars, Massacres and Atrocities Before the 20th Century

Slavery

African American Slavery

In American Holocaust (1992), David Stannard estimates that some 30 to 60 million Africans died being enslaved. He claims a 50% mortality rate among new slaves while being gathered and stored in Africa, a 10% mortality among the survivors while crossing the ocean, and another 50% mortality rate in the first "seasoning" phase of slave labor. Overall, he estimates a 75-80% mortality rate in transit.

In Slavery A World History, Milton Meltzer estimates that 10 million slaves arrived in the Americas. This would be the residue after 12.5% of those shipped out from Africa died on the ocean, 4-5% died while waiting in harbor, and 33% died during the first year of seasoning.

In "The Atlantic Slave Trade and the Holocaust" (Is the Holocaust Unique, A. Greebaum, ed., 1996), Seymour Drescher estimates that 21M were enslaved, 1700-1850, of which 7M remained in slavery inside Africa. 4M died "as a direct result of enslavement". Of the 12M shipped to America, 15%, or 2M more, died in the Middle Passage and seasoning year.

Jan Rogozinski, A Brief History of the Caribbean (1994): "[A]s many as eight million Africans may have died in order to bring four million slaves to the Caribbean islands."

In The Slave Trade, Hugh Thomas estimates that 13M left African ports, and 11,328,000 arrived. Here are a few other numbers from Thomas:

• No year-by-year stats, but by piecing together scattered decade stats, I figure that 5M slaves were shipped in the 18th Century.
• Shipboard mortality among slaves:
  • Mercado in 1569 estimated an average shipboard mortality of 20%
  • Brazilian historians: 15-20% in 16th C; 10% in 19th C.
  • English trade:
    • 1680s: 24%
    • early 18th C: 10%
    • 1780s: 5.65%
  • Hugh Thomas: 9% reasonable est. for 18th C.
  • 19th C
    • Cliffe: 35%
    • House of Commons: 9.1%
    • Thomson: 9%
    • Hotham: 5%

In the chapter on African population in the Atlas of World Population History (1978), Colin McEvedy estimates that 9.5 million African slaves were imported into the Americas between 1500 and 1880. He also suggests a 15% mortality rate on the ocean.

Rummel estimates a total death toll of 17,267,000 African slaves (1451-1870)

• Among slaves going to Orient: 2,400,000 dead
• Among slaves staying in Africa: 1,200,000 dead
• Among slaves going to New World: 13,667,000 dead

Fredric Wertham claims that 150,000,000 Africans died of the slave trade.

My Estimate:

Looking at all the scholarship on the subject, it looks like, at the very least, 35% of those enslaved in Africa died before they were ever put to work in America. On the other hand, at least 20% of them survived. Between these extreme possibilites (35-80%), the most likely mortality rate is 62%.

In terms of absolute numbers, the lowest possible (and only barely possible at that) death toll we can put on the trans-Atlantic slave trade is 6 million. If we assume the absolute worst, a death toll as high as 60 million is at the very edge of possibility; however, the likeliest number of deaths would fall somewhere from 15 to 20 million.

If 5 million slaves were shipped in the 18th Century (the busiest century, see Hugh Thomas, above), then the 18th Century death toll could be around 8.1 million. (=5/11*17.8)

Keep in mind that these numbers only count the dead among the first generation of slaves brought from Africa. Subsequent generations would contribute additional premature or unnatural deaths.

Slavery in the Islamic World

Ronald Segal, in Islam's Black Slaves, estimates the total number of African slaves shipped to the Muslim world at 11.5M-14M. This breaks down as follows:

• From 650-1600 CE
  • Citing Ralph Austen:
    • Trans-Saharan: 4,820,000
    • Red Sea: 1.6M
    • East Africa: 0.8M
    • TOTAL: 7.22M shipped
  • Citing Paul Lovejoy: 3.5-10.0M shipped
• 17th Century
  • Sahara: 0.7M
  • Red Sea: 0.1M
  • East Africa: 0.1M
  • TOTAL: 900,000 shipped
• 18th C
  • Sahara: 0.7M
  • Red Sea: 0.2M
  • East Africa: 0.4M
  • TOTAL: 1,300,000 shipped
• 19th C
  • Sahara: 1.2M
  • Red Sea: 0.45M
  • East Africa: 0.442M
  • TOTAL: 2,092,000 shipped
• TOTAL: 11,512,000 shipped

Segal also mentions estimates by Raymond Mauvy:

• 7th C: 0.1M
• 8th C: 0.2M
• 9th C: 0.4M
• 10th-13th Cs: 2.0M
• 14th C: 1.0M
• 15th-19th Cs: 10.0M
• First half 20th C.: 300,000
• TOTAL: 14M shipped

What was the mortality rate among these slaves? Here are a few estimates in Segal:

• Wylde: Each eunuch in Cairo represented 200 dead Sudanese.
• Hourst, 19th C: each sale represented a loss of ten in the original population, including raids.
• Livingstone: 1 living = 10 dead.
• British Govt Rpt: For every 10 slaves reaching 19C Cairo, 50 died on the way.
• Nachtigal: on one large [typical?] Saharan caravan, 3 or 4 died for every survivor.
• UK Consul in Zanzibar: 1:1 ratio
• Mahadi: 20% d. in Saharan trade
• Lovejoy, citing Martin: 9% overall in 19th C. East Africa. (Segal: safe estimate)
• [MEDIAN of these estimates: 3 to 5 deaths for every 1 live import]

Death Toll

How many people died in all the slave harvesting by Moslems over the centuries? I hesitate to estimate, but I think we can safely assume that at least 3 people died for every 2 living slaves delivered (similar to the death rate in the Atlantic trade), which comes to about 19M deaths. Keep in mind that the data is so spotty and the margin of error so wide that we can't honestly or definitively accuse either the Christian or Moslem slave trade of being worse than the other.

[FAQ: "How reliable are these numbers?"]